March 05th, 2020

​It must have been a fun day on the golf course in San Jose, making hockey such a chore ...

By Tom Jelinek

I live in the northern part of San Diego county, only about an hour from Anaheim.  I regret to report that the weather yesterday and today is really nice.  I don't expect a fabulous showing Thursday and Friday, not that I care that much, anymore.  It's a slow process, weaning myself off this team, but they're helping me along nicely, by reminding me that I seem to care more than they do.  Marner had a highlight reel goal, but I still don't care.  That's a Harlem globetrotter move; worthless when the competitive emotion is not there.  Used to be, you built a team with ingredients, and checked boxes on the recipe card once you had them.  Skill, size, emotion, intensity, you had to have them all reinforcing each other, or it would not work.  The Leafs have skill.  There is no indication of a checklist, other than maximum skill quotient.  Now, when the team dominates the opponent, especially when part of it is physical intimidation, then someone scores a highlight goal, it's the ultimate high.  But without the emotion, it's just a performing art, not a sport worthy of cheering.

Since hockey is a little slow nowadays, some random musings.

A lot of people have a mild infection of some kind.  It doesn't seem to involve the sinuses, but goes straight to the chest.  Nobody I know has a fever, or is bedridden, but mild malaise and a cough.  One cluster seems to revolve around a visitor from China, about a month ago.  So how about the expression, SHTF.  It's supposed to only be a metaphor, right?  Not literal, notwithstanding that snippet from Airplane?

My kids told me a teacher of theirs said he's been to Costco every evening this week, and each day, they were sold out of toilet paper, and bottled water.  Being that we were a little low on TP, I went this morning, and the first thing I noticed was that everyone had a couple of big bundles of TP.  Some had as many as four big bundles.  What were they expecting, SHTF?  Not everyone was buying bottled water, but some had enough to bathe in, should the S actually H the F.  Sanitary wipes were also in hot demand.  Not food, vitamins, garbage bags, or other supplies you might think would be handy.  Simply stuff to clean up a shitstorm.  Do these people not know it was just a metaphor?  Knowing a lot of people, I have my doubts.

I know quite a bit about viruses.  My PhD was in a virology lab, although it was slanted to cell biology.  I taught 4th year virology to university students at one point.  And I'm appalled at how much false, stupid, or fraudulent information is being spread, even or especially by those in positions of authority.  Sometimes it's that doctors and scientists can't distinguish between their personal opinion and fact.  Other times, it's impossible not to suspect ulterior motives.  Look at the following narratives.

In South Korea, there is a disciplined regimen of testing and quarantine.  The numbers being reported, unique among nations, appear to be exactly what they're observing.  The death rate seems to be about 0.2% of those infected.  Everyone else seems to have something to hide, or an ax to grind.  The Chinese are pretending everything is under control, move along, nothing to see here.  They claim the economy is recovering, and people are back at work.  But observers in the West note the conspicuous absence of air pollution in Chinese cities.  If the economy was recovering, air quality would be the first thing to suffer, confirming it.  

Here, the biggest danger appears to be the disruption of supply chains.  Nobody today can make anything without Chinese components, or materials.  Good luck running an economy where you can't produce anything.  That's why the stock market is down like it is, in the face of rate cuts from central banks.  Lower rates won't deliver Chinese components, and without them, you won't be producing, regardless what interest rates are doing.  Yet you have a combination of the Trump admin saying everything is under control, get back to buying stocks, while the bureaucracy is pushing panic buttons.  The WHO put the death rate of Coronavirus at 3.2% recently, while Anthony Fauci said as many as 20% of those infected might need hospitalization.  Fauci's comment is particularly panic-worthy, because it means hospital capacity will quickly fill up, and everyone else will be turned away, meaning the death rate will soar.  If what Fauci says is true ... and I don't know that it is.  Based on the Korean numbers, I have my doubts.  But the admin is also being deceptive.  The outbreak is not under control, and it will not be brought under control.  The CDC is limiting who can be tested, so the true infection rate is hundreds or thousands of times the reported rate.  Even this mild cold going around could be Corona.  The lack of sinus involvement is particularly suggestive.

There is only about a month or two left in this phase of the epidemic.  After that, the sun gets stronger, people's vitamin D levels go up, and like every summer, viruses seem to disappear from circulation.  But they come back as sure as the weather changes, come October or November.  And this Corona seems to linger quite a while, usually without symptoms, so it's a sure thing that it will hit again this coming fall, starting with a presence everywhere.  That's when the S is really going to H the F, and all the toilet paper Costco makes between now and then won't change it.  But I'll up my daily vitamin D from 10,000 units to 30,000 units, and won't sweat it too much.  What kills people in cases of viral pneumonia is not the virus directly, but the immune response to the virus, when it gets inflammatory.  Fluid fills the lungs, and the patient can't breathe.  That's often referred to as cytokine storm.  It is kept in check by sufficient levels of vitamin D, and observe for yourselves that the traditional flu season is exactly when the sun is not effective.  That's even true in tropical countries, during the rainy season.

​Stay healthy, everyone!